Padgett Fired

Re: Padgett Fired

Postby Cujo » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:49 pm

since I'm not involved in the hire, the "us" in "let's not rush" doesn't include me, so for the sake of argument, let me make a counter point. IF we hire a coach soon, it would give us something to talk about other than Covid19 and speculation about who the new coach might be (re who it might be, that discussion hasn't been all that interesting lately). Hiring a coach would allow us to get on with the serious business of either second guessing the hire or predicting that we will soon be led to the promise land. Maybe it would be best to wait until the Coronavirus "stuff" evaporates and the storm passes, but I fear in the aftermath a Samford hire isn't going to be a big deal in the news cycle. Wait, what am I thinking, when would it be a big deal in the news cycle?
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby AP » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm

Whomever the coach is will have the benefit of Year 0 next year, assuming things return to normal by Memorial Day. I have trouble even really getting back in "normal sports mode" at this point.

Speaking frankly, the competitive position of Samford basketball is lower than it has been in the 25 years I've been associated with it. Our six-year KenPom average is 240.5. We were 290 or below three times in the Padgett Era. This is a hire that needs a six-year time horizon to dig back out of our current situation.

Year 0: Get things back to a "do no harm" level. Purely foundational. Don't care what our record is, but I do care about fundamentals and how the team competes. This might take a season and a half, but we need to tick all the boxes that we had checked in 2012-13--before "the beginning."
Year 1-2: Build the frame of the program. Bring in classes that will develop into the first group of difference-makers as upperclassmen. Make significant inroads into the community and campus. Have people interested and engaged by the product you're putting on the floor, and rebuild the loyalty we've lost. Hopefully top 200 in KenPom these years, but at least show signs of progress.
Year 3-4: Solid foundation, solid frame in place. These are the years we put the critical things on the house. Get back to competing. KenPom ranks between 180 and 150 with a positive trend-line.
Year 5-6: Finishing touches. Top 1/4 of the SoCon with a chance to win every SoCon game. Put players on the floor that can do what the coach wants them to do. Be prepared to make noise in Asheville.

If we run ahead of schedule, that's great. But I'm not willing to see quick gains and even quicker losses based on the illusions of progress. Samford Basketball is a total teardown/rebuild job right now.
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby Cujo » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:43 pm

It shouldn’t take 6 years.
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby SU DOG » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:06 pm

Cujo just beat me to it. No, I say 2-3 years for basketball at the most. I saw 1-2 games this season and I knew that Samford WBB would compete for the top of the SoCon. This is not a pat on the back for me, but I use it as an example. Will MBB be harder? Sure, but not 5-6 or even 4 years before we can accurately evaluate. What was Auburn before Pearl? This was considered one of if not the worst program in the SEC. I think it was his 3rd year there that they went 26-8. There are many other examples. Unlike football, where you basically have 22+ starters, one player is 20% of your starting team. IMO, we had D-1 talent - no not the talent that the top tier of the SoCon had, but I would have liked to see what we did have play up to their potential. This would include teamwork, strategy, chemistry, and all the intangibles that are included. Get the right guy in here and you will see a turnaround much more quickly than you expect.
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby Cujo » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:14 pm

+1
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby sudog03 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:01 pm

SU DOG wrote:I saw 1-2 games this season and I knew that Samford WBB would compete for the top of the SoCon.


The coach did a great job, taking a team that went 5-9 and turning it into 10-4 and winning the conference tournament. But, I think it's important to remember that the SoCon was 28th of 32 conferences using RPI in WBB. The league came way back to our women's team (2 years ago the league was 17th of 32). The men were 13th out of 32 conferences using RPI. Hopefully the league comes back to us on the men's side as well.

SU DOG wrote: What was Auburn before Pearl? This was considered one of if not the worst program in the SEC. I think it was his 3rd year there that they went 26-8. There are many other examples. Unlike football, where you basically have 22+ starters, one player is 20% of your starting team. IMO, we had D-1 talent - no not the talent that the top tier of the SoCon had


It was year 4 for Pearl, first season above .500 in league and a breakout one at that. I agree we had SOME D-1 talent this season, but not near enough, and most of what we had (at least in eligible players from last season) has departed.

Personally, I think 6 years is too far a horizon to compete in the top 3-4 of the league, but if the league stays in the top 15, I think it will be at least season 3 for that to occur given current roster situation and if things are done in a sustainable way. We are 5-48 in our last 53 regular season league games against non-military schools. This is not going to be a quick turnaround, IMO. Hope I'm wrong.
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby AP » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:40 pm

SU Dog and Cujo, I appreciate your optimism. I disagree. It will be at least the 2022-'23 season before we're within a game (either way) of .500 in league play unless the SoCon slides. We don't have many of the advantages Bruce Pearl has at AU and, tbh, Bruce Pearl ain't walking through that door.

Samford can't build a program with runoffs/processings for transfers, jucos, and prep school kids. Coach Seltzer tried that. We might be able to get a targeted transfer or two, but this program needs to be built with HS recruits. I'm not optimistic about this program until I know who will lead it.
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby Cujo » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:19 pm

I am going to lose sleep tonight now that I know you disagree.
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby 77SU » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:15 am

Since we’re sitting at home in the dark because of a storm-induced power outage, we were wondering how much longer our AD is going to keep the rest of us in the dark regarding a new HC?

Wondering if maybe there has been some push back to the apparent hire of the guy from down the road? Maybe actually taking a harder look at other potential candidates? If going with a HS coach, taking time to find staff? Assuming current staff is trying to find other positions.

It’s amazing how your mind wanders sitting in the dark, typing on an itty-bitty keyboard by candlelight. Nowadays when my mind wanders, the question is whether it will return.
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Re: Padgett Fired

Postby smalltownbulldog » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:58 am

SoCon WBB and MBB are no comparison. WBB has no perennially good programs, it's always been year to year. That said, this is a good chance for SUWBB to assert itself as that power team to beat in the league if they can follow it up next season. MBB has been left totally in the dust as the rest of the league has collectively gotten its stuff together.
I agree Pearl has been fantastic, but as mentioned above, his resources are in a different stratosphere than SU, plus some of his (or at least some members of his staff) methods are questionable at best.
As usual, AP is right on the money. Sure, you could have a good team by year 3. But we are not wanting to have a good team, we want a good program. And that will likely take to year 5-6. You win the SoCon with seniors, and no matter how dynamic a coach we hire he will probably need 1-2 years to build the credibility we need to successfully recruit the caliber of player we need to be top quarter of the league.
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